When the income is at risk, and how well secured it is until then
Rollover, tenant credit and co-tenancy are usually treated as three separate checks. They are three views of one exposure, and looking at any of them alone is how a rent roll gets misread.
Weight by rent, because that is what is at stake
Counted as events, three leases across three years reads as comfortably staggered. Weighted by the income each one carries, almost half the building turns over at once.
- Bucketed by year, sized by incomeEach bar is the share of base rent expiring, not the number of suites, so an anchor and a small unit stop looking like the same event.
- The cost, not just the gapTI and commissions come due while the space earns nothing, and free rent delays the recovery. A big roll year is usually a cash outflow.
Rollover by year
$227,520
$436,800
$615,440
Weighted by base rent, not by suite count. 48.1% of income rolls in a single year.
The same dates behind a different covenant is a different deal
Knowing 48% of income rolls in 2031 is half a fact. The other half is what stands behind that income between now and then, and whether anything stands behind it at all.
- Guaranty coverage, weighted by rentHow much income sits behind a corporate guaranty, a personal one, or nothing recorded — with the last reported rather than omitted.
- And in retail, what a departure triggersCo-tenancy clauses can turn one anchor going dark into rent reductions across the centre. Read from the leases, not assumed.
Tenant credit & guaranty
- Corporate guaranty48.1%
Cardinal Freight Systems
- Personal guaranty34.1%
Meridian Cold Storage
- None recorded17.8%
Halstead Components
Weighted by rent, not by tenant count — the question is how much income stands behind a covenant.
Rollover is not automatically bad news
A lease expiring below market is an opportunity wearing the costume of a risk. If in-place rents sit under what the space would achieve today, the roll is when you capture that — and a long weighted average lease term is then a reason for concern rather than comfort.
Which way it cuts depends on where your rents sit against the market, and that is a measurement rather than an instinct. It is the same question loss to lease answers, and it is why rollover and comps belong in the same conversation.
What does not vary is the cost of the transition. Downtime, free rent, improvements and commissions are real whichever direction the rent moves, and they land in specific months.
Questions people ask
What is lease rollover risk?
The risk that income falls when leases expire — through vacancy, downtime, lower renewal rents, or the cost of re-letting. It is the single largest source of uncertainty in a multi-tenant building and the one most often reduced to a single average.
Why is weighted average lease term not enough?
Because an average hides distribution, which is the only thing that matters here. Two buildings can both report 3.1 years while one rolls evenly and the other rolls half its income in a single year. The average is identical and the deals are not.
What should I model for a rollover year?
The gap and the cost. Downtime loses you rent; tenant improvements and leasing commissions cost you cash in the same months the space is producing none, and free rent pushes the recovery further out. A year with a large roll is usually a year with a net outflow, not just a smaller inflow.
How does tenant credit relate to rollover?
They are the same exposure asked about twice. Rollover asks when the income is at risk; credit asks how well secured it is until then. A large roll behind a strong corporate guaranty and the same roll behind nothing recorded are different risks with identical dates.
What about co-tenancy clauses?
In retail they turn one departure into several. A clause elsewhere in the rent roll can let smaller tenants cut rent or leave when an anchor goes dark, which means an anchor rollover is not one event. That is a retail-only mechanism and it is modelled from the clauses in your own leases.
Where this goes next
Rollover & re-leasing
The mechanism, and the per-suite assumptions.
Tenant credit & guaranty
How well secured the income is until it rolls.
Co-tenancy stress test
Why a retail anchor rollover is never one event.
WALT explained
Why the average hides what matters.
Loss to lease
Whether a rollover is a risk or an opportunity. Free tool.
Lease guaranties
What the covenant behind the rent is worth.
See the whole exposure at once.
Upload the leases and DealWise reads the dates, the guarantor language and any co-tenancy clauses, then weights all of it by the rent actually at stake. Free plan, no credit card.