What happens to income when the leases actually roll
Expirations grouped by year and weighted by rent, so clustering shows up instead of hiding behind an average — with each suite carrying its own re-leasing assumptions and their cost.
Three tenants across three years is not diversification
Counted as events, this rent roll looks staggered and comfortable. Weighted by the rent actually at stake, almost half the building's income turns over in a single year.
- Bucketed by year, weighted by rentEach bar is the share of base rent expiring, not the number of suites. A 78,000 SF anchor and a small showroom stop looking like the same event.
- Concentration becomes visible48.1% of income on one lease in one year is a fact about the deal that a weighted average lease term will never show you.
- Expired leases are flagged, not rolled forwardRent on a lease that already ended is not contractual term income, and it does not get presented as though it were.
Rollover by year
$227,520
$436,800
$615,440
Weighted by base rent, not by suite count. 48.1% of income rolls in a single year.
The gap is the small half of the cost
Most rollover models show the income you lose while the space is empty. That is real, and it is usually the cheaper half.
The expensive half is what it costs to fill it again. A tenant improvement allowance and a leasing commission both come due at the moment the suite is producing nothing, and free rent pushes the income further out still. A year with a large roll is a year with a cash outflow in it, not merely a smaller inflow.
So the assumptions sit per suite — market rent, renewal probability, downtime, free rent, TI, commission — and the cost is modelled alongside the gap rather than mentioned beside it. A warehouse and a showroom in the same building do not re-let on the same terms, and a building-wide assumption quietly says they do.
It shows up in the month it happens
Rollover is not an annual adjustment. A lease ending in November is eleven months of rent and one of nothing, and the cash flow should say so.
- Modelled monthly, across the holdThe gap, the free rent, the TI and the commission each land in the month they actually occur, so the year's coverage reflects them.
- Checked against your loanA roll that lands the same year as a balloon is a refinance into a weaker rent roll, which is worth knowing before you sign either.
Rollover by year — evenly staggered
$399,285
$440,237
$440,238
The same three-year spread, without the concentration. This is what staggered actually looks like.
Questions people ask
What is lease rollover risk?
The risk that income falls when leases expire — through vacancy, downtime, lower renewal rents or the cost of re-letting. It is the difference between a building's income today and its income once the current leases have run out.
Why weight expirations by rent instead of counting them?
Because a suite count treats a 78,000 square foot anchor and a 3,000 square foot unit as the same event. Weighting by rent shows what share of income is actually exposed in a given year, which is the thing that moves the deal. Three tenants rolling across three years sounds diversified until you see that one of them is 48% of the rent.
What re-leasing assumptions can I set?
Per suite: market rent, renewal probability, downtime between tenants, free rent, tenant improvement allowance and leasing commission. They are per suite rather than building-wide because a warehouse and a small showroom in the same property do not re-let on the same terms or the same timeline.
Does it model the cost of re-letting, not just the gap?
Yes, and that is usually the larger number. Downtime costs you rent; TI and commissions cost you cash at exactly the moment the space is producing none. A rollover model that shows only the vacancy gap understates what the year actually costs.
What about a lease that has already expired?
It is flagged rather than quietly rolled forward. Rent sitting on an expired lease is not contractual term income, and presenting it in the same column as a lease with eight years left is how a rent roll misleads without containing a single false number.
Where this goes next
WALT explained
Why the average hides exactly what is worth knowing.
Lease abstraction
Where the expiry dates come from.
Co-tenancy stress test
What an anchor leaving does to everyone else's rent.
Loss to lease
The gap between in-place and market rent. Free, no signup.
All capabilities
Everything else the product does.
Plan for lease rollover
The job this capability exists for.
See when your income actually rolls.
Upload the leases and DealWise reads the expiry dates, weights them by rent and models what each rollover costs — downtime, free rent, TI and commission, in the month they land. Free plan, no credit card.